optimistic forecasts on the year 2011
The economic tendencies have changed more sharply than predicted in early 2010, which allows more optimistic forecasts on the year 2011. The third quarter data indicate that the Latvian economy has taken the recovery direction. The fastest development can be seen in the manufacturing industry. However, it should be noted that the industrial volume in the economy is still smaller than in the other Baltic States. Furthermore, the trade reported good results, mainly due to the gains in vehicle and non-food product sales. The sales data improvement proves that the private consumption is stabilizing in the domestic market and inhabitants are not so cautious regarding long-term purchases, explains SEB banka macroeconomic expert Dainis Gašpuitis.
Similarly, SEB banka economists acknowledge that the economic recovery will be based on further focus on exports and domestic consumption renewal, which, however, seems to be very moderate. It is expected that this year the main growth indicators will remain the same as in 2010. The manufacturing, trade and tourism sector will grow. While the tax burden increase will be one of the factors to hinder the economic activity. The economic processes will be determined by the inhabitants’ future outlook. Also, investments in the business development and promotion of new activities will be a topical issue.
Over the third quarter of 2010 the gross domestic product has also increased. Last year, industrial sector reported a healthy growth, while the export hit new records. Domestic trade also continues to recover. Moreover, the period of deflation ended faster than expected and the price gains returned. Along with the economic activity rise, the unemployment increase lost its momentum and the opposite trend was observed.